Modeling Indonesia’s regional economic growth for sustainable development planning

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate Indonesia’s regional economic performance using gross regional domestic product (GRDP) per capita at the provincial level from 2015 to 2021. Utilizing business intelligence technology through Tableau, the study integrates descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics to examine interregional GRDP dynamics. The k-means clustering method is employed to classify provinces into three clusters based on economic similarity. The results reveal a persistent economic disparity between the western and eastern regions of Indonesia, with provinces such as DKI Jakarta and East Kalimantan grouped in the high GRDP cluster, while East Nusa Tenggara and Papua fall into the lowest cluster. Trendline and forecasting analyses provide projections of economic growth through 2030, indicating that some provinces demonstrate stable upward trends, whereas others show stagnation or declining patterns. Based on these findings, this research offers data-driven policy recommendations aimed at promoting more equitable and sustainable economic development across Indonesia.